I love you all to death (Just so I can smash bros with you) (SSBWiiU/3DS)

[Kriven]

I think Pac-Man has a decent chance, and I also think Tails has a higher chance than any other third-party character not already utilized (except for Pac-Man) in the franchise because of how buddy-buddy Sega and Nintendo have been lately and considering the success of the Mario & Sonic franchise.

As far as cuts go, I think Lucas and Wolf are the most likely to go. Sakurai doesn't really like Earthbound and never intended for the franchise to have two reps. Ness only returned by popular demand, and I think he'll do so again. Lucas doesn't bring much to the table without being altered, and he's kind of an obscure character to the world in general. He might return, but I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't. Same for Wolf, who hasn't appeared in a new game since Brawl and even there his inclusion felt a little weird.

Snake may not return, but I'm honestly not sure. He may go both ways.

Other than them, I think Lucario and Pokemon Trainer are the most likely to leave, but I don't see Lucario going anywhere, and now Red and Charizard have Pokemon Origins going for them (as well as MegaCharizard X and Y). I do think Mewtwo will return, and we may still see a Black and White rep.

I no longer think Wind Waker Ganondorf will be arriving, unfortunately. I don't think Ike is going away, I think Roy's fan status might allow him some backdoor access.

Here is what I see as possibilities broken down more simply:

Returning from Melee:

Mewtwo - X and Y, Double Megas, Fan Status
Roy - Awakening DLC, Fan Status

Cut from Brawl:

Wolf - No longer relevant
Lucas - No longer relevant, not universally relevant, Sakurai hates Earthbound

Returning from Brawl:

Wario
Yoshi
Diddy - Specifically, his importance in new DK games.
ZSS
Ice Climbers
Ganondorf
Meta Knight
King Dedede
Falco
Ness
Jigglypuff
ROB
Mr. Game & Watch

Could be Cut:

Pokemon Trainer
Lucario
Snake

Newcomer Possibilities (asterisks around who I see as the top eight most likely):

Bowser Jr. - Miyamoto's baby
Toad - NSMB franchise, 3D World
Tetra - Wind Waker HD, intended for Brawl
Dixie Kong - Tropical Freeze, intended for Brawl
Ridley - Fan favorite, Other M
Palutena - Fan favorite, Sakurai favorite, Uprising
Medusa - Fan favorite, Sakurai favorite, Uprising, Legacy Villain
Chrom - FE:A
Prince Fluff - Epic Yarn
Bandana Waddle Dee - Completes the set of Return to Dreamland player characters
Mii - Sakurai mentioned customized characters, Show up everywhere
Pikmin 3 Captain with Rock and Flying Piks -
Zoroark - Black and White were still relevant during the early phases of Smash development
Dillon - Pretty popular, represents the 3DS and eShop
Pushmo Guy - Pretty popular, represents the 3DS and eShop
Pac-Man - Namco working on the game, Video Game significance
Tails - Sega and Nintendo's relationship strengthened, Video Game significance
Tingle - Three games this past generation, Nintendo seems to love him
Shulk - Xenoblade
Little Mac - Punch-Out Wii, Legacy

Of them, I think these eight have the best chances:

Pac-Man
Dixie
Bowser Jr.
Shulk
Ridley
Mii
Dillon/Pushmo
Palutena

I think Mega Man is representing the NES-Retro character this time, and I think Wii Fit Trainer, Mii, and Villager fill in the Avatar/Peripheral slots utilized by G&W and ROB. It's possible we might get Little Mac and Takamaru, but I'm not so sure.

Wishlist:

Muddy Mole
Diskun

but they won't happen.